The Fourth Turning

The Fourth Turning
William Strauss and Neil Howe
1997   Bantam Doubleday Dell, New York, NY

 
This book turns history into prophecy, and so far, 23 years later, they are right on track.
For the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era, or turning – every two decades or so, (the span of a human generation). Turnings come in cycles of four.  At the start of each turning people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, the nation, and the future.

America’s current cycle:
First Turning. A High, an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism. The American High of the Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy presidencies. America became muscular, conformist, and spiritually complacent.

Second Turning. Awakening. The Consciousness Revolution, from the campus revolts of the 1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980s. Personal liberation.

Third Turning. Unraveling. The Culture Wars. Began during Reagan’s mid-1980s Morning in America. This began an era of national drift and institutional decay. This turning was expected to come to an end during the decade following the millennium.

The Fourth Turning. Crises. A sudden spark will catalyze a Crises mood. Remnants of the old social order will disappear. Political and economic trust will implode. Hardship and severe distress will be at hand that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. The risk of catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. There could be a war and if so, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort. Sometime before the year 2025 America will pass through a great gate in history.  
The focus of this book is that while we cannot stop the seasons of history, we can prepare for them. This time of trouble will bring seeds of rebirth. As the old civic order gives way, Americans will develop a new consensus about what to do and craft a new order. The next Fourth Turning could end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined or enter a new golden age of applied shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming crises, all they suggest is the timing and dimension.
 The authors suggest that the trends are tied to human generations. During the First Turning, (a High), a Prophet generation is born. A Nomad generation is born during an Awakening, a Hero generation during an Unraveling, and an artist generation during a Crises.
The challenge in history is to look at the future not as a straight line, but around the inevitable corners. An appreciation for history is never more important than at times when a secular winter is forecast. For much of the Third Turning we have managed to postpone the reckoning. But history warns we cannot defer it past the next bend in time.
How To Prepare For The Fourth Turning
As a country:

• Values. Forge the consensus and uplift the culture, but don’t expect near-term results. A decadent or nihilistic culture is a seedbed for fascism. The less self-control the media or public exercises now, the more likely it becomes that some outside authority will impose a despotic control
• Institutions. Clear the debris and find out what works, but don’t try building anything big. Political upheaval will occur. Simplify the federal government by cutting back in size and scope without imperiling its core infrastructure. Thin out procedural requirements that would delay or weaken emergency measures. Courts should avoid erecting constitutional obstacles to legislative actions or executive fiat. This would get in the way when the mood becomes urgent
• Politics. Define challenges bluntly and stress duties over rights, but don’t attempt reforms that can’t now be accomplished. Politicians should speak candidly about the nation’s future challenges and stress collective duties over personal rights. Fundamental reforms or vast civic projects will not work during an Unraveling.
• Society. Require community teamwork to solve local problems, but don’t try this on a national scale. National survival will require a level of public teamwork and self-sacrifice far higher than Americans now provide. We need to encourage integration of all types and discourage group niching, (from walled suburban enclaves to monoethnic college dorms).
• Youth. Treat children as the nation’s highest priority, but don’t do their work for them. The outcome of the Fourth Turning may depend on the generation coming of age. The federal government should start now to shift its benefit budget away from the non-needy old to the needy young.
• Elders. The economy will not keep growing. No one will be entitled to anything. Those in need will be authorized. Some benefits will have to be cut. Its time now to shift from defined benefits to defined contributions.
• Economy. Correct fundamentals, but don’t try to fine tune current performance. The American economy will experience extreme shocks to asset values, production, employment, price levels, and industrial structure. We must raise the national saving rate by shifting the tax rate from income to consumption and mandating personal and portable pension plans for every worker.
• Defense. Expect the worst and mobilize, but don’t pre-commit to any response. Isolation, diplomacy, massive superiority, and simple good will not keep us out of trouble. Invest heavily in R&D oriented toward future dangers and maintain diverse defense infrastructures. America should grid for a possible large-scale war. Expect scant help from transnational bureaucracies, but major help from allies who share our fundamental interests.

The authors acknowledge that some of these suggestions appear rather modest given the magnitude of the challenges Americans will soon face. But that is all the current season will allow.
As Individuals:
Picture yourself in the middle of a howling blizzard that lasts for several years. Think of what you would need, who would help you, and why your fate might matter to anyone but yourself.

• Rectify. Return to the classic virtues. Build a reputation as a person of honor and integrity. Be a good citizen. The more your bottom line is interwoven with other people and your community, the more helpful others can be in an emergency.
• Converge. Heed emerging community norms. Do not isolate yourself from community affairs. Appearances matter. Team, brand, and standard will be the new watchwords. Being unplugged could penalize you when you need to know what all levels of government are doing.
• Bond. Build personal relationships of all kinds. High level, (institutional), corruption may recede, but low-level personal dealings could flourish. Expect a loss of personal privacy, some hastily deputized magistrate may have new authority to do something to you.
• Gather. Prepare yourself (and your children) for teamwork. Stress less what sets you apart as an individual, and more what you have in common with others. Where public schools still exist, educate your children there, they can develop powerful connections with government.
• Root. Look to your family for support. This will be your ultimate safety net.
• Brace.  Grid for the weakening or collapse of public support mechanisms. Build your own financial security.
• Hedge. Diversify everything you do. Generalists with survival know-how will have the edge over specialists whose skills are only useful in an undamaged environment. Invest in equities to gain maximum profit while you still can, but stay alert too the public mood. The closer we get to the Fourth Turning the greater the risk of a Great Devaluation. Foreign markets may or may not be on the same cycle timing as America. Enter the Crises with a reliable cash flow, diversified savings, and some liquid assets.
  
  

The next Fourth Turning could mark the end of man, or the end of a nation. Alternatively, it could find America and the world in a better place. Rome survived twelve cycles, Etruria ten, and The Soviet Union perhaps only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. America has survived three so far, and each of those produced moments of extreme danger. In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter. In World War II, America was finally victorious against an enemy that might have destroyed America itself.